Fun times.
Not that I'd know, but here are some options for what might happen.
1. Rudd does the sums and works out that he doesn't have the numbers. So he quits politics explaining that he can't work under JG. We have an election and Tony Abbott wins.
2. Rudd does the sums and works out he does have the numbers. He challenges in an open way - not quite like JG did last time. He wins and we have a fresh start before the election and labor has a chance of winning.
3. Gillard does her sums and works out she has the numbers. She challenges him for the leadership and wins. Rudd moves to the backbench and sits and stews quietly. Things mumble along and labor goes down big time in the election.
I rather like option 2.
I think that K.R will wait till labor is smashed and hopes J.G will resign. Then he runs for leader and hope the "Faceless" men wont defeat him.
ReplyDeleteLikely, but boring. I want the soap opera amped up NOW!
DeleteNah. He needs time to let the dust settle. And for JG to lose. Which she will. There's no chance for her to save face here.
DeleteI'm with Nathan. I'm pretty sure he doesn't have the numbers. I can't see him challenging at the mo. He'll just sit it out while Gillard et al self destruct.
ReplyDeleteFascinating times. You can't knife a PM and then expect nothing to happen down the track.
How gutsy is he though. He's gone open misere. In Chicago. At 1:30am. Taking down the PM, Crean, Arbib, Shorten and the NSW Right.
I think the public will like him more now, even if his party likes him less.
In reply to me....
DeleteHow wrong I was. The man's ego has no limits.
I'm just glad someone's made a move. It was getting painful to watch. And the only person winning out of all this was Tony Abbott...
ReplyDeleteI don't think he has the numbers right now either. I think he's done this because he knows he doesn't. I rather like the idea of him sitting and quietly stewing actually, then resurrecting, Lazarus style, when the rest of them eventually implode :)
Looks like he was pre-empting a sacking by Julia Gillard - which makes her latest "I'm disappointed he didn't come and speak to me first" speech look even more disingenuous.
ReplyDeleteI don't think he'll want to wait for Labor to lose at the federal elections - being leader of the opposition is very hard unless (like here) the government is a minority government. I think few guys who take the helm of the opposition at the start go on to become Prime Minister.
Federal Labor will need to work out if they want a shot at holding onto government or whether they *really* can't work with Rudd. When Qld Labor gets decimated that should be the moment when most MPs can decide whether they'd rather lose their seats than have in charge in again. It doesn't look remotely likely Gillard can lead the party to anything other than a big loss.
And Labor has to learn to stop "eating its young" if it wants to stop this cycle from continuing. Abbot can complain about Rudd not putting the labor movement first, but the flip side is that the loyalty of the party hacks is only ever one way - you sacrifice for the party, or they'll sacrifice you.
I reckon he should go for Option 4 - if the factions want to play numbers, play the numbers of another Independent and Fed Labor down one - wanna bet they'll grovel to Wilkie? (Yes, pun intended.) Unfortunately for my fantasy, he's such a Labor die-hard that the chances of that are Buckley's.
ReplyDeleteI love that the first comment was from your very informed son.
ReplyDeleteI actually thought that was you Nathan! Not my 12 year old!
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